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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Global government bonds are deteriorating fast: “it ain’t looking good!”
Politicians will not voluntarily fix sovereign debt issues because fiscal discipline loses elections. The UK and France have already run out of runway and have their backs against the wall. The US is still "kicking the can", but when $1 out of every $5 collected goes strictly to paying interest, the market will eventually force a reckoning there as well.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 56 min read


Week ended May 23, 2025: all eyes on US budget
All eyes have been on the 2025-26 US budget discussions in the House this week, with the "big beautiful bill" getting through (albeit barely) and heading to the Senate. Professional bond and currency investors are signalling concern, visible in higher UST yields and a weaker US Dollar.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 23, 20257 min read


Week ended May 16, 2025: What caught my eye this week
President Trump has been in the Middle East this week with a contingent of US business leaders and his finance / economics team, cutting...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 15, 20258 min read


Week ended April 11, 2025: Bonds speak the truth
We're up, we're down, we're all around! US stocks remain volatile but ended higher. Bonds are the "adult in the room" though.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 12, 20256 min read


Who do you trust?
Do you trust the Fed, or the Bank of England, or the Bank of Japan, or the ECB, or the Bank of China? Shades of grey for sure, read on!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 15, 20225 min read


Is the bond market doing the Fed's dirty work?
The bond market looks to be doing the Fed's dirty work, sending short term yields to post-pandemic highs. Is the Fed being too methodical?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 20, 20215 min read
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