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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Oct 11, 2024: more record highs for US stocks
CPI slightly hotter than expected, and earnings off to a good start. Yields continue to back up, US stocks at record high close.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 12, 20245 min read
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Week ended October 4, 2024: soft landing in sight
Risk remains asymmetrical to the downside, but a robust US jobs report cheered risk investors on Friday and sent UST yields sharply higher.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 5, 20245 min read
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Week ended Sept 27, 2024: China delivers stimulus, PCE data in line
Chinese stimulus measures buoyed stocks globally, and US Treasuries were stable. Gold paused and oil fell. The Dollar was weaker.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 28, 20245 min read
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Week ended Sept 20, 2024: central bank decisions feature
Last week was mainly about a trifecta of central bank decisions, with most attention focused on the Fed. The Fed Funds rate was reduced .50%

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 21, 20247 min read
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Week ended Sept 13, 2024: it was an "everything up" week
It was one of those weeks that if you didn't chalk up portfolio gains, it would be difficult to figure out why. Bonds and stocks rallied.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 14, 20246 min read
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Week ended Sept 6, 2024: sentiment deteriorates
US Labor Day holiday marked the unofficial end of summer, and also a demarcation for risk sentiment. Bonds rallied and stocks got hammered.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 7, 20246 min read
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Week ended August 30, 2024
Earnings and economic data (especially inflation data) continued to improve risk sentiment. The yield curve inversion ended. Dollar better

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 1, 20246 min read
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Week ended August 23, 2024: Fed "pencils in" first rate reduction
A confluence of economic data, punctuated by a speech by Fed Chair Powell on Friday in Jackson Hole, suggests rate cuts are coming soon.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 24, 20243 min read
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Week ended Aug 16, 2024: "everything up" week!
It was an "everything up" week, with global equities, US Treasuries, corporate bonds and gold all registering gains. Happy summer!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 17, 20244 min read
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Week ended August 9, 2024: back where we started
It was a highly volatile week in bond and risk markets, which makes it hard to believe that we ended the week about where we started.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 10, 20245 min read
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Week ended Aug 2, 2024 (and emails during week to subs)
Last week was brilliant for UST investors in duration, and horrible for investors in global equities. Culprits: Mag & and US economic data.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 3, 202411 min read
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Week ended July 26, 2024: mixed week, earnings and data
Markets mixed, with FTSE 100 leading the charge and Nikkei 225 getting hammered. Tech bellwethers set tone, economic data mixed.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 27, 20245 min read
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Week ended July 19, 2024: stocks and bonds sell off
Markets were jittery much of the week, with the rotation out of tech continuing in the US. US Treasuries were also under pressure.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 20, 20244 min read
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Week ended July 12, 2024: stocks and bonds rip
Stocks rip and bonds rip. Small cap stocks did the best in the States while tech floundered. US CPI cooler than expected. UK growth better

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 13, 20246 min read
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Week ended July 5, 2024: UK election and US jobs report
Labour wins overwhelming majority in UK Parliamentary election. US jobs report favourable for inflation. French election ahead.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 6, 20245 min read
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Week ended June 28, 2024: Geopolitics dominate, markets lacklustre
The news narrative was dominated by elections in the UK and France, and the first Biden-Trump debate. Markets were lacklustre to close 1H24

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 30, 20245 min read
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Week ended June 21, 2024
European and most US equity indices better, with UST yields widening across the curve. Focus in on elections in the UK and Europe.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 22, 20246 min read
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Week ended June 14, 2024: US inflation slows
US CPI surprised on the downside (lower than expected) this week, setting a constructive tone. The FOMC says one rate cut, Europe wobbles.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 15, 20243 min read
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