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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Moody's downgrade and Walmart
Moody's downgraded the US, the last of the "big three" to strip the US of its triple-A rating. I suspect a muted reaction, at least initially, in the UST market. Stocks might take it worse. I also cover Walmart and its comments on tariffs.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 184 min read
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Four tech giants to report earnings: MSFT, META, AMZN and AAPL
Four of the infamous tech giants in the Mag & report earnings today and tomorrow: MSFT, META, AMZN and AAPL. Risk is downside asymmetrical.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 303 min read
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Mag 7 stocks, earnings, "hands off" the Fed and Jeffrey Sachs at ADF
Quick look to start the week with earnings, including TSLA and GOOG, Jeffrey Sachs explaining poor Trump policies and the Fed's independence

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 224 min read
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Musings to start the week
Down we go in a self-inflicted mess caused by Mr Trump's errant tariff policy. I talk about trade and budget deficits, and the week ahead.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 75 min read
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DeepSeek, ASML earnings, Mag 7 earnings and FOMC decision
DeepSeek wrecks outlook for AI companies; Mag 7 companies MSFT, META, TSLA and AAPL report earnings; FOMC expected to hold rates

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 293 min read
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Musings to start the week (and it's all about banks)
UBS was seemingly strong-armed into a stock-for-stock acquisition of CS, ending that saga. What does this mean for global banking system?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 19, 20236 min read
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Moral hazard following SIVB
The Fed, Treasury and FIDC took two steps last Sunday to address the SIVB situation. Are these effectively a form or moral hazard?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 15, 20237 min read
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Corporate misbehaviour and the Adani Group
Let me begin this article by acknowledging that no country is immune to corporate fraud or graft. In fact, I can think of many more...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 3, 20237 min read
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Is the bond market doing the Fed's dirty work?
The bond market looks to be doing the Fed's dirty work, sending short term yields to post-pandemic highs. Is the Fed being too methodical?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 20, 20215 min read
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